Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:43:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f99…d68a
world · 37 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$10 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage299d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 45¢ 71¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+58%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $21 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $76 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $46 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 24 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 22? Aug 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 20 $8 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 19 $4 $0 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 19 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% +$4
politics 22% +$1
other 12% $0
economics 7% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $24 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $56 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 17¢ $11 21h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $34 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $11 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $53 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 13 +0.5% -9.1% 46% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 13 +0.5% -9.1% 46% 0% -8.7%
all 35 +0.6% -8.9% 29% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.33 (match) · 235 history records