Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:06:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f9d…c744 sports 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$450 (+4%) realized +$450 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%152W / 248L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$135
14 days+$167
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$495
other 7% −$100
crypto 1% −$39
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -9.6% -18.2% 38% 38% +6.3%
≤30d 109 -9.4% -18.1% 36% 34% -2.9%
≤90d 325 -8.9% -17.5% 37% 35% -3.1%
all 400 -5.7% -14.7% 38% 36% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 36% -3.6%
10% -22.8% 34% -12.8%
15% -30.3% 32% -21.3%
20% -37.1% 30% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$16 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses152 / 248
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions1
Markets (closed)400 / 407
History coverage239d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 41¢ 40¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$20 +199%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $100 +$30 +30%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 20 $15 +$10 +68%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $11 +$15 +131%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $20 +$29 +143%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Set Handicap: Droguet (-1.5) vs Rodionov (+1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$2 -16%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $10 −$2 -24%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $7 +$7 +99%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $90 +$52 +58%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $6 −$5 -90%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 19 $8 +$7 +87%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $56 +$33 +60%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $7 −$5 -70%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $61 −$31 -51%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $16 +$21 +127%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $9 +$7 +71%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -10%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $48 −$18 -37%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $39 +$18 +45%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $19 −$1 -6%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $13 +$6 +47%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $22 −$10 -44%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $30 −$7 -25%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $33 +$17 +51%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$4 -85%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$24 +239%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $9 +$13 +143%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) SELL Bouzkova 99¢ $31 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 43¢ $0 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 60¢ $130 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 45¢ $100 2h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 41¢ $9 4h
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) BUY Bouzkova 32¢ $10 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 AND Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals AND A BUY $6 11h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN SELL 71¢ $26 11h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 41¢ $15 15h
Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Ismael Sai BUY $10 15h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 99¢ $26 16h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 42¢ $11 16h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 17h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime $0 17h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Auger-Aliassime 41¢ $6 18h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 99¢ $49 19h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 40¢ $20 19h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $3 19h
Set Handicap: Droguet (-1.5) vs Rodionov (+1.5) SELL Droguet 29¢ $9 20h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner SELL Laslo Djere 18¢ $0 20h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $14 20h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 49¢ $7 21h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner SELL Laslo Djere 38¢ $8 21h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Laslo Djere 47¢ $10 21h
Set Handicap: Droguet (-1.5) vs Rodionov (+1.5) BUY Droguet 33¢ $10 21h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Folari BUY 39¢ $11 21h
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Svitolina 48¢ $11 21h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 77¢ $1 21h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro $1 21h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 76¢ $141 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.89 · official $8.89 (match) · 917 history records