Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2f9d…f2b3 crypto 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$436 (+4%) realized +$436 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%48W / 62L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$59
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$274
sports 21% +$681
crypto 12% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 29% -7.2%
≤30d 17 -19.0% -26.7% 35% 29% -13.1%
≤90d 22 -19.8% -27.4% 32% 27% -13.9%
all 110 -15.9% -23.9% 44% 41% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 41% -3.3%
10% -31.2% 39% -12.6%
15% -37.8% 38% -21.0%
20% -43.9% 33% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$68 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses48 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage121d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$309 +308%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $86 −$86 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $131 −$118 -90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $253 −$193 -76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $224 −$224 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $104 −$103 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $338 +$425 +126%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $197 −$135 -69%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $299 +$163 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $161 −$158 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$330 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $149 −$136 -91%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $185 +$88 +47%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $119 −$118 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 04 $99 −$94 -96%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $17 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 04 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $36 +$86 +238%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $600 −$483 -80%
First Blood in Game 4? Mar 22 $93 −$90 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $712 +$581 +82%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $309 +$307 +99%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. KRC Genk: Both Teams to Score Mar 19 $544 +$480 +88%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $54 +$41 +76%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Mar 17 $50 −$13 -26%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $64 +$38 +60%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $50 −$33 -65%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $278 +$185 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 12 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $101 +$109 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 11 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 11 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 11 $22 +$29 +129%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $100 +$72 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 96¢ $409 40m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 0¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 19¢ $86 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $106 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 7¢ $60 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $252 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $224 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 41¢ $104 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 48¢ $53 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $407 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $356 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $73 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $62 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 12¢ $62 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $462 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $299 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $197 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $161 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $531 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $200 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 3¢ $13 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records