Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f9e…c96b weather 595 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (321 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,380 (+47%) realized +$4,705 · open −$325
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%161W / 408L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day321.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% +$298
crypto 34% +$226
sports 9% +$298
other 3% −$93
politics 1% −$100
world 1% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (321 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 +8.0% -2.3% 23% 22% +5.4%
≤30d 569 +4.6% -5.4% 28% 26% -0.6%
≤90d 569 +4.6% -5.4% 28% 26% -0.6%
all 569 +4.6% -5.4% 28% 26% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover321.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 26% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 25% -10.2%
15% -22.7% 22% -18.8%
20% -30.3% 20% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$10 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$4,705
Unrealized−$325
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses161 / 408
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions26
Markets (closed)569 / 595
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day321.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 43¢ $64 $105 +$42 (+65%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $17 −$4 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-16%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $80 $1 −$79 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-81%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? No 14¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? No 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$50 +1006%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $56 −$49 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 −$15 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $261 +$25 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$20 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$59 +610%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $93 +$163 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 18 $96 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $47 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$12 +1890%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $55 +$35 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 −$13 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$33 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$24 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +76%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $13 +$14 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $213 −$197 -92%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $12 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 +$52 +790%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $22 32m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.16 · official $179.43 (match) · 3500 history records