Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2F 0x2fa0…aa66 sports 1145 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 152d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,098 (-2%) realized −$6,000 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate82%940W / 204L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$365
7 days−$612
14 days−$974
30 days−$1,987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$3,844
other 14% −$922
weather 9% −$539
crypto 2% −$58
world 0% −$62
politics 0% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +4.4% -5.5% 70% 26% -24.3%
≤30d 160 -4.0% -13.1% 81% 31% -17.1%
≤90d 522 -1.8% -11.2% 85% 26% -13.5%
all 1144 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 27% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 27% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 10% -20.0%
15% -27.0% 4% -27.7%
20% -34.2% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$120 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$6,000
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses940 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1144 / 1145
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$216
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 3.5 Corners Over 73¢ 30¢ $169 $71 −$98 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $154 +$16 +10%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia Jun 17 $4 +$20 +530%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$30 +30%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $317 −$316 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $365 +$52 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $333 +$36 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $320 +$13 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $55 −$42 -77%
Michael Olise: 2+ shots Jun 16 $536 −$78 -15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $42 +$4 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $131 −$131 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $54 +$6 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $150 −$104 -70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $88 +$62 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $163 +$11 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $153 +$9 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $115 +$38 +33%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $88 +$4 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 +$1 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$8 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $94 +$7 +7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $87 +$7 +8%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $74 +$13 +17%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $68 +$7 +10%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $91 +$16 +17%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $80 +$12 +15%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $63 +$17 +26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $59 +$4 +6%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $52 +$7 +14%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $0 $0 +4%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $48 +$4 +8%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $127 −$79 -62%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $121 +$6 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $106 +$15 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $98 +$7 +7%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $95 +$4 +4%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $79 +$13 +16%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $75 +$7 +10%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $75 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $70 +$5 +7%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $67 +$3 +5%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $87 +$14 +16%
Cayman Islands leading at halftime? Jun 06 $83 +$5 +6%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $80 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 73¢ $170 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $112 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia SELL 32¢ $24 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 89¢ $10 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $33 3h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $130 3h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $317 4h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $101 4h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $417 4h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 87¢ $365 15h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia BUY 5¢ $4 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $333 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $333 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $320 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 16¢ $13 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 25h
Michael Olise: 2+ shots SELL Yes 100¢ $408 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $55 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $9 27h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 27h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $42 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $9 27h
Michael Olise: 2+ shots SELL Yes 22¢ $50 27h
Michael Olise: 2+ shots BUY Yes 84¢ $513 30h
Michael Olise: 2+ shots BUY Yes 83¢ $23 30h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 86¢ $60 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner SELL Germany 99¢ $60 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner BUY Germany 88¢ $54 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $46 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.56 · official $70.56 (match) · 3500 history records