Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2F 0x2fa0…e6f1 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,701 (+56%) realized +$1,608 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$103
14 days+$39
30 days+$1,248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% +$1,438
other 11% −$34
sports 8% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -25.5% -32.6% 42% 37% -29.5%
≤30d 43 -11.3% -19.8% 47% 40% +66.6%
≤90d 44 -13.1% -21.4% 45% 39% +66.5%
all 45 -11.9% -20.3% 47% 40% +66.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 40% +66.5%
10% -27.9% 33% +50.6%
15% -34.9% 29% +36.0%
20% -41.3% 22% +22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +84% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$10 · ×7.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.45 per $1 lost it wins $6.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$562
Realized+$1,608
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)45 / 56
History coverage96d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 90¢ $262 $346 +$84 (+32%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+14%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$21 +68%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$35 -77%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$14 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$5 -47%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$14 +71%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $353 +$143 +40%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $410 +$661 +161%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $186 +$566 +304%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $62 −$19 -30%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 21 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Mar 20 $1 $0 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 16¢ $28 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 14h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $10 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 14h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 91¢ $350 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 20¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 10¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $10 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 74¢ $6 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.86 · official $561.86 (match) · 232 history records