Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2F 0x2fa6…ea2a crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%46W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$6
crypto 11% +$1
other 3% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 62 -1.5% -10.9% 74% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses46 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage536d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $42 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 05 $8 $0 +1%
XRP all time high in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Mar 20 $31 $0 -0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Mar 14 $5,548 −$6 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 04 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 91d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 122d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $6 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $14 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 151d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $14 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $30 183d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $42 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $12 241d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $39 243d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $28 274d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 302d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $42 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $38 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 363d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 364d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.83 · official $54.83 (match) · 127 history records