Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

2F 0x2fa6…f2fb weather 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$167 (+103%) realized +$64 · open +$103

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +162% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +102% what you keep after slip

Net edge+102%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day27.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+137.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+162.0%	+137.0%	100%	100%	+96.4%
≤30d	2	+162.0%	+137.0%	100%	100%	+96.4%
≤90d	2	+162.0%	+137.0%	100%	100%	+96.4%
all	2	+162.0%	+137.0%	100%	100%	+96.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover27.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+137.0%	100%	+96.4%
10% ← realistic here	+114.3%	100%	+77.6%
15%	+93.6%	100%	+60.4%
20%	+74.7%	100%	+44.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +117% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +162% · $-wt +117% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$32 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$207

Realized+$64

Unrealized+$103

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day27.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?	Yes	11¢	96¢	$11	$99	+$88 (+776%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27?	Yes	29¢	26¢	$72	$66	−$6 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	Yes	3¢	7¢	$21	$42	+$21 (+99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?	Jun 26	$42	+$34	+80%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26?	Jun 26	$12	+$30	+244%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	10¢	$0	11m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	15m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	16m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	23m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	10¢	$0	23m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	10¢	$4	28m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?	SELL Yes	76¢	$42	29m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?	SELL Yes	76¢	$30	30m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?	SELL Yes	76¢	$5	30m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	43m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	50m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	15¢	$0	56m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26?	SELL Yes	69¢	$42	1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	41¢	$42	1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	19¢	$12	1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	29¢	$75	1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?	BUY Yes	4¢	$17	1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	16¢	$2	1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	16¢	$0	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.97 · official $116.24 · 27 history records