Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2F 0x2fa7…e3c7 crypto 1496 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (159 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$51 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%756W / 504L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day158.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,847
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (159 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 886 +8.7% -1.6% 54% 54% +14.2%
≤30d 1260 +21.4% +9.8% 60% 60% +22.3%
≤90d 1260 +21.4% +9.8% 60% 60% +22.3%
all 1260 +21.4% +9.8% 60% 60% +22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 60% +22.3%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 60% +10.6%
15% -10.3% 60% -0.1%
20% -19.1% 60% -9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses756 / 504
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1260 / 1496
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day158.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 51¢ 98¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: FK Teplice (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.61 · official $8.98 (match) · 3500 history records