Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fa9…a486 other 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$127 (+2%) realized +$619 · open −$492
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%32W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days+$305
14 days+$103
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$146
sports 16% −$9
crypto 8% −$66
world 4% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 39% +0.6%
≤30d 86 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 34% -8.1%
≤90d 86 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 34% -8.1%
all 86 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 34% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 34% -8.1%
10% -28.8% 28% -16.9%
15% -35.7% 26% -24.9%
20% -42.0% 23% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$27 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$751
Realized+$619
Unrealized−$492
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses32 / 54
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage24d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $500 $543 +$43 (+9%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $500 $125 −$375 (-75%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 42¢ 18¢ $200 $83 −$117 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 +$629 +307%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 −$107 -52%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 17 $125 −$1 -0%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 17 $201 −$3 -2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $201 +$29 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $164 −$161 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $329 −$173 -52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 +$368 +180%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $142 −$100 -70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $232 +$62 +27%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 +$29 +62%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will FF Jaro win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 10 $20 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 10 $20 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 10 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $142 −$7 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 10 $133 −$12 -9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $31 +$18 +60%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$9 -45%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $171 +$30 +18%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 09 $191 +$23 +12%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $93 −$90 -97%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $513 41m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $203 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $205 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $97 19h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $125 19h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $197 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $19 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $33 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $25 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $127 20h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $29 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $75 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $125 23h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $125 24h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $54 34h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $54 34h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $14 34h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $17 34h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $18 34h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $14 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $16 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $127 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $20 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $76 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $127 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.10 · official $751.10 (match) · 292 history records