Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fab…d73c
crypto · 268 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$231 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$773 · open −$851
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,230
Realized−$773
Unrealized−$851
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses124 / 136
Open positions8
Markets (closed)260 / 268
History coverage9d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 260 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$964
7 days−$773
14 days−$773
30 days−$773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 56¢ 30¢ $710 $374 −$336 (-47%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 69¢ 46¢ $500 $337 −$163 (-33%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 57¢ 36¢ $300 $189 −$111 (-37%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $256 $150 −$106 (-41%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $194 $121 −$73 (-37%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-23%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $110 +$190 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $135 +$165 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $145 +$151 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $175 +$122 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $168 +$132 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $180 +$114 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $158 +$145 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $186 +$116 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $226 +$73 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$147 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $187 +$126 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $162 +$145 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$90 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $176 +$72 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $137 +$163 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $155 +$145 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $115 +$184 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$194 +191%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$773
world 3% −$610
economics 1% −$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $110 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $135 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $177 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $145 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $175 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $139 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $168 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $157 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $113 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $186 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $226 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $129 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $187 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $162 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $119 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $125 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $200 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $115 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $131 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 48% -10.8%
≤30d 260 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 48% -10.8%
≤90d 260 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 48% -10.8%
all 260 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 48% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 48% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 47% -19.3%
15% -28.5% 47% -27.1%
20% -35.5% 45% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,230.38 · official $1,230.38 (match) · 569 history records