Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2fac…be63 crypto 540 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+3%) realized +$61 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate90%483W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$112
14 days+$112
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$51
other 25% +$117
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +31.5% +19.0% 100% 100% +20.7%
≤30d 3 +31.5% +19.0% 100% 100% +20.7%
≤90d 4 +23.6% +11.8% 75% 75% +20.7%
all 539 -2.7% -12.0% 90% 12% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 12% -6.9%
10% -20.4% 6% -15.8%
15% -28.1% 3% -23.9%
20% -35.1% 2% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses483 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)539 / 540
History coverage111d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 539 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $241 $246 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $160 +$84 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $141 +$19 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $32 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 22 $6 +$13 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 22 $5 +$15 +320%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 22 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 22 $6 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 22 $7 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 22 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 22 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 22 $8 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 22 $14 +$16 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 22 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 22 $13 +$8 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 22 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 21 $17 +$13 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 21 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 21 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 21 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 21 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 21 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 21 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 21 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 21 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $243 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $160 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $141 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.40 · official $246.44 (match) · 1186 history records