Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fac…f09f other 263 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 255L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$43
sports 25% −$23
politics 8% −$7
crypto 6% −$4
economics 6% −$7
world 5% −$5
culture 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 262 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)262 / 263
History coverage136d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $633 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $561 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $577 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $387 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $374 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $169 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $314 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $261 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $289 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $321 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $229 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $327 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $720 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $573 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $573 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $144 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 7m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 17m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 3h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 5h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 6h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 8h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 12h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 13h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 16h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 17h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 19h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 21h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 22h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 24h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 25h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 27h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 28h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 29h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 34h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 37h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 37h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 38h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 40h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 41h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 44h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 45h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.27 · official $55.27 (match) · 1414 history records