trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 25% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 25% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -1.7% | -11.1% | 27% | 0% | -11.5% |
| all | 23 | -7.2% | -16.1% | 35% | 4% | -17.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.1% | 4% | -17.4% |
| 10% | -24.1% | 4% | -25.3% |
| 15% | -31.4% | 4% | -32.6% |
| 20% | -38.2% | 4% | -39.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $34 | $34 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 24 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 23 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $33 | +$1 | +2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $43 | −$7 | -16% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 25 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 24 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 24 | $57 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 24 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss | Mar 05 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will Brentford vs. Everton end in a draw? | Mar 01 | $38 | −$38 | -100% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? | Mar 01 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Arkansas State vs. Louisiana | Feb 25 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February | Feb 25 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Michigan State vs. Maryland | Feb 25 | $12 | $0 | -4% |
| North Florida vs. Florida Gulf Coast | Feb 25 | $30 | +$15 | +52% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February | Feb 25 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on February | Feb 25 | $9 | $0 | +0% |