Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fb2…e495
crypto · 954 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$984 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$917 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized−$917
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses566 / 386
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions2
Markets (closed)952 / 954
History coverage70d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 952 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$52
14 days−$112
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$210
sports 22% −$223
world 16% +$7
crypto 11% −$589
politics 6% +$53
finance 2% +$44
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 448 +0.7% -8.9% 65% 55% -11.1%
≤30d 680 +1.7% -8.0% 64% 54% -9.1%
≤90d 952 -2.0% -11.3% 59% 51% -11.9%
all 952 -2.0% -11.3% 59% 51% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 51% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 40% -20.4%
15% -27.6% 30% -28.1%
20% -34.7% 20% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.93 · official $51.93 (match) · 3500 history records