Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2F 0x2fb2…f24c sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,382 (-16%) realized −$1,204 · open −$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,699per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6,683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$160
other 17% −$1,400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -37.9% -43.8% 50% 50% -94.6%
≤90d 2 -37.9% -43.8% 50% 50% -94.6%
all 2 -37.9% -43.8% 50% 50% -94.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 50% -94.6%
10% -49.2% 50% -95.1%
15% -54.1% 0% -95.6%
20% -58.6% 0% -96.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$1,400 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$6,683
Realized−$1,204
Unrealized−$178
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,699
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 45¢ 44¢ $4,010 $3,915 −$95 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 23¢ 22¢ $2,068 $2,025 −$43 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Belgium 10¢ 10¢ $782 $743 −$39 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $70 +$17 +24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,427 −$1,400 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 10¢ $700 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $915 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $1,372 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $1,647 1h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 10¢ $103 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $469 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $1,790 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 80¢ $70 8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $409 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,018 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,682.55 · official $6,682.55 (match) · 11 history records