Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2F 0x2fb3…8a1d other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,115 (-58%) realized −$1,062 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$747now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1,058
other 43% −$106
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$557 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$747
Realized−$1,062
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)2 / 18
History coverage96d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Sweden? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Austria? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 25 $1,058 −$1,058 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $747.12 · official $747.12 (match) · 20 history records