Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fb4…be51 crypto 341 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2614 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,072 (-6%) realized −$2,072 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate79%270W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day2613.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$114
sports 4% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2614 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 341 -16.4% -24.4% 79% 1% -9.3%
≤30d 341 -16.4% -24.4% 79% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 341 -16.4% -24.4% 79% 1% -9.3%
all 341 -16.4% -24.4% 79% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2613.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -38.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -44.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,072
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses270 / 71
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)341 / 341
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day2613.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 341 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $179 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $175 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $73 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $291 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $265 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $174 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $88 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $145 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $175 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $262 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $175 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $88 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $86 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $174 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $175 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $114 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $146 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $86 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $262 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $174 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $176 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $174 −$84 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records