Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2F 0x2fb6…3f8a other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,631 (-16%) realized −$1,631 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%47W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days+$354
14 days+$421
30 days−$1,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 22% −$1,883
other 20% −$316
politics 20% +$181
world 15% −$118
tech 10% +$231
culture 5% −$193
economics 5% +$213
sports 2% +$269
finance 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +13.5% +2.7% 84% 56% +2.1%
≤30d 44 -5.7% -14.7% 66% 50% -28.5%
≤90d 55 -15.2% -23.3% 60% 47% -30.9%
all 88 -9.4% -18.1% 53% 44% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 44% -24.1%
10% -25.9% 32% -31.4%
15% -33.1% 19% -38.0%
20% -39.6% 12% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$93 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,631
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses47 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage267d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 22 $101 +$17 +16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $101 +$12 +12%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 22 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 22 $202 +$27 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $102 +$12 +11%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $102 +$15 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$18 +18%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 22 $201 +$10 +5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 22 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 22 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $101 +$49 +48%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 22 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 22 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $101 +$3 +2%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 22 $101 −$3 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $101 −$4 -4%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 22 $160 −$14 -9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $85 +$4 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $101 +$34 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $101 +$38 +37%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $100 +$39 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $100 +$49 +49%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,367 −$1,249 -91%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$10 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 31 $100 +$245 +245%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 31 $200 +$151 +76%
Will Trump say "Easter" or "Egg" during Monday news conference? Apr 07 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during Monday news conference? Apr 07 $30 +$9 +32%
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 15+ times during Monday news confer Apr 07 $87 +$27 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $118 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $113 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL No 86¢ $119 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $128 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $129 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $116 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $114 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $117 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $118 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $109 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $108 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $127 1h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $131 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $150 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $108 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $103 1h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $101 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $101 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 80¢ $98 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $96 1h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $91 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $89 1h
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $101 19d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 19d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 74¢ $101 19d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 19d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $101 19d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $101 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records