Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fba…917f world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$2
other 30% −$3
politics 21% +$1
sports 10% −$13
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.2% -11.5% 12% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 17 -1.7% -11.0% 12% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 56 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 57 -2.2% -11.6% 26% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -10.3%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage486d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $80 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $70 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $66 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $84 −$3 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $86 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $63 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $62 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $3 $0 +9%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $38 $0 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $37 +$1 +2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $2 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $39 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 42h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $36 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $9 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $40 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $37 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $41 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records