Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2fba…14a0 weather 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%175W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$4
world 3% +$1
other 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 31 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 97 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 175 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses175 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage184d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 27? May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 23? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 23? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 22? May 23 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 17? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 15? May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 14? May 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13? May 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 12? May 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 11? May 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 10? May 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 8? May 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C on May 8? May 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 8? May 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 7? May 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 6? May 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on May 6? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 5? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $26 10d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 12d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $26 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $26 20d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $26 22d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 23d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 24d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 24d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 24d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.21 · official $26.21 (match) · 354 history records