Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

2F 0x2fbb…aea9 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized +$26 · open −$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$789per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$2,373now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-51.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-46.0%	-51.2%	33%	33%	-11.8%
≤30d	3	-46.0%	-51.2%	33%	33%	-11.8%
≤90d	3	-46.0%	-51.2%	33%	33%	-11.8%
all	3	-46.0%	-51.2%	33%	33%	-11.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.2%	33%	-11.8%
10%	-55.9%	33%	-20.2%
15%	-60.1%	33%	-28.0%
20%	-64.0%	33%	-35.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -46% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$555 vs −$296 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2,373

Realized+$26

Unrealized−$39

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$789

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	37¢	38¢	$1,424	$1,481	+$58 (+4%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	New Zealand	56¢	50¢	$989	$892	−$97 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$897	+$555	+62%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 26	$146	−$143	-98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$450	−$450	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	BUY New Zealand	56¢	$1,002	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1,450	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,452	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$897	6h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	34¢	$146	6h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$413	6h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$15	6h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$22	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,373.23 · official $2,240.14 · 9 history records