Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2fbc…87a6 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$192 (-11%) realized −$198 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days−$281
14 days−$281
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$247
sports 5% −$25
other 1% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 40% -24.3%
≤30d 43 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 40% -24.3%
≤90d 46 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 37% -24.3%
all 46 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 37% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 37% -24.3%
10% -27.8% 33% -31.5%
15% -34.8% 33% -38.1%
20% -41.2% 30% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$32 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage39d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 40¢ 48¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $89 +$119 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$52 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$23 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$29 -76%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $6 −$5 -93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 19 $19 −$1 -5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 $0 -5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $7 +$7 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $168 −$158 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $77 +$92 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $228 −$151 -66%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $155 −$155 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +105%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $65 −$61 -94%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $93 −$66 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$120 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$121 +119%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$96 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $4 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $89 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $89 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $37 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $37 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $38 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $38 42m
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 44m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 4¢ $0 44m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $13 44m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $6 44m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $54 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.38 · official $37.12 (match) · 123 history records