Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fc2…cfce crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$597 (+3%) realized +$631 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day147.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,826
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 42% -0.4%
≤30d 48 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 42% -0.4%
≤90d 48 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 42% -0.4%
all 48 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 42% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 42% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 40% -9.9%
15% -39.6% 29% -18.6%
20% -45.5% 23% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$194 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$631
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage2d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day147.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 49¢ 32¢ $97 $63 −$34 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $1,062 +$538 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $4,707 +$3,693 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $357 +$143 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $1,282 −$1,252 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $248 −$48 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $1,207 −$407 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $1,127 −$1,077 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $156 −$154 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $635 −$35 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $319 +$281 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $472 −$72 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $284 +$116 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $151 +$49 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $173 −$166 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $181 −$174 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $504 +$96 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $161 +$39 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $323 +$77 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$100 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $147 +$53 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $133 +$67 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $231 −$31 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $114 −$111 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $186 +$214 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $156 −$154 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $111 +$89 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $226 +$174 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $120 −$117 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $95 −$92 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $592 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $120 +$80 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $376 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $729 +$471 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $121 +$79 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $193 −$186 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $85 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $149 −$146 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $319 +$81 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $153 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $153 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $153 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $154 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $123 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $122 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $102 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $74 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $93 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $93 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $93 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $93 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $83 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $86 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $113 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $113 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $113 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $113 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $83 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $83 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $83 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $83 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $83 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $83 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.00 · official $67.00 · 392 history records