Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2fc3…b676 sports 52 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,174 (+31%) realized +$7,715 · open −$541
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$399est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,313
7 days+$9,712
14 days+$7,818
30 days+$7,818
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$7,921
other 5% −$537
crypto 1% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +15.9% +4.9% 41% 41% +39.2%
≤30d 44 +6.7% -3.5% 39% 39% +23.6%
≤90d 44 +6.7% -3.5% 39% 39% +23.6%
all 44 +6.7% -3.5% 39% 39% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 39% +23.6%
10% -12.7% 39% +11.8%
15% -21.2% 36% +1.0%
20% -28.9% 36% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$714) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,042 vs −$366 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$7,715
Unrealized−$541
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$399
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 52
History coverage7d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 29¢ 10¢ $150 $49 −$101 (-67%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 0¢ $441 $0 −$441 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $510 −$500 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $123 −$120 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $306 −$300 -98%
Tunisia to win the second half? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $306 −$300 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $204 +$520 +254%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $459 −$452 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $381 +$370 +97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $261 −$255 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $338 +$512 +152%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $95 +$26 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $259 −$255 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $390 −$383 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $495 +$587 +119%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-H Jun 19 $154 +$748 +486%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $615 −$600 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $632 −$620 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $809 +$1,226 +152%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $840 +$1,145 +136%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $689 +$2,440 +354%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $204 +$129 +63%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $256 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $205 +$202 +98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $219 −$214 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,015 +$944 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,162 −$1,142 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $714 +$1,475 +207%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $57 −$2 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $870 +$3,380 +388%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,525 +$1,822 +120%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2,027 +$1,609 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $581 −$570 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $914 −$900 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $810 +$576 +71%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $407 −$400 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $609 −$600 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $448 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 25¢ $102 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 34¢ $408 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a d BUY 4¢ $41 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 19¢ $123 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $306 15h
Tunisia to win the second half? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 38¢ $306 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $724 16h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $204 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $459 17h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $381 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $103 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $261 27h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'I BUY 25¢ $225 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $849 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 12¢ $120 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $338 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $259 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $95 33h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $390 47h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $495 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY 23¢ $196 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $615 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $632 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $509 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $411 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $544 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $571 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.58 · official $49.58 (match) · 80 history records