Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fc5…6f99 other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,246 (-12%) realized −$1,361 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$726
7 days−$761
14 days−$1,272
30 days−$1,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$1,394
sports 26% +$191
world 6% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -6.0% -15.0% 42% 40% -16.9%
≤30d 50 -17.4% -25.3% 36% 34% -22.5%
≤90d 50 -17.4% -25.3% 36% 34% -22.5%
all 50 -17.4% -25.3% 36% 34% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 34% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 32% -30.0%
15% -38.9% 22% -36.7%
20% -44.9% 16% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$104 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,523
Realized−$1,361
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions8
Markets (closed)50 / 58
History coverage8d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $711 $828 +$117 (+16%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 35¢ $100 $167 +$67 (+67%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $97 $72 −$25 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $143 −$86 -60%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $65 −$52 -80%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $143 +$267 +187%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 −$33 -36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 +$22 +24%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 −$55 -72%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$48 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$82 -80%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $348 +$593 +170%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$97 -48%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $318 −$115 -36%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $435 +$84 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $403 +$28 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $226 −$33 -15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 −$21 -86%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $96 −$18 -18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $117 +$35 +30%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $205 +$59 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 16 $102 −$18 -18%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $308 +$130 +42%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $192 +$95 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $58 +$21 +37%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $565 +$45 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $527 +$163 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$99 -90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$71 -70%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $185 −$180 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $113 +$46 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $696 −$690 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$12 +77%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $102 −$84 -82%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$268 +262%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $236 −$119 -50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 −$150 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $347 −$272 -78%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $235 −$230 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 11 $102 −$11 -10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $130 6m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 6m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $57 7m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 8m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $143 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $65 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $515 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $410 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $59 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $114 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $92 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $92 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $122 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $250 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $21 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $182 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $500 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $81 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,522.99 · official $1,513.75 (match) · 172 history records