Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2F 0x2fc7…f77a crypto 1040 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$929 (+1%) realized +$1,008 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%691W / 348L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day76.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,603
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.5% -6.4% 85% 52% -5.9%
≤30d 931 -5.1% -14.1% 66% 60% -12.0%
≤90d 1039 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 60% -11.4%
all 1039 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 60% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 60% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 48% -19.8%
15% -29.6% 34% -27.6%
20% -36.5% 19% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$52 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$1,008
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses691 / 348
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1039 / 1040
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$72
Trades / day76.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1039 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $124 +$39 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $273 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $260 +$38 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $313 +$27 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $387 −$164 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $224 +$59 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $280 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $250 +$68 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $173 +$36 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $181 −$12 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $117 +$21 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $195 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $179 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $112 +$25 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $146 +$22 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$12 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $70 +$27 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $204 +$61 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $344 +$24 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $252 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $116 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $95 +$22 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $122 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$18 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $69 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $139 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $115 +$37 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $80 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $14 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $108 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $53 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $70 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $273 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $46 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $21 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $17 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $248 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.18 · official $194.49 · 3500 history records