Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fcd…9293 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$841 (-11%) realized −$841 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%31W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$238
7 days+$115
14 days−$271
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$463
other 42% −$1,033
crypto 8% −$169
politics 3% −$206
culture 2% −$15
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +5.7% -4.3% 34% 30% -5.8%
≤30d 68 -2.2% -11.5% 29% 26% -15.8%
≤90d 68 -2.2% -11.5% 29% 26% -15.8%
all 99 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 29% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 29% -20.8%
10% -19.2% 27% -28.4%
15% -27.0% 22% -35.3%
20% -34.1% 22% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$52 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$841
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses31 / 68
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage222d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$2 +6%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $68 +$232 +344%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $92 −$47 -51%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $234 +$148 +63%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $67 −$5 -7%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$78 +77%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $51 +$66 +129%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $51 +$115 +224%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $96 +$1 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $32 +$40 +126%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $46 −$5 -10%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $121 +$75 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$60 +59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $21 +$137 +668%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 +$79 +388%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$34 +165%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$49 -48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$22 -54%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 +$199 +388%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $41 +$74 +180%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$9 -46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $31 −$18 -58%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$9 -18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 43m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 36¢ $42 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $31 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $51 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $68 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $41 9h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $51 9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $45 9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $145 9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $51 10h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $152 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $188 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $202 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 32¢ $63 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $67 13h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 36h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 97¢ $142 37h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 86¢ $1 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 97¢ $37 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records