Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2F 0x2fcf…b077 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+10%) realized +$110 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$113
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$6
politics 11% +$26
sports 7% −$27
crypto 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.8% -13.9% 55% 55% +3.8%
≤30d 31 -24.3% -31.5% 45% 45% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -24.3% -31.5% 45% 45% -9.7%
all 34 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 44% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 44% -7.4%
10% -35.5% 44% -16.3%
15% -41.7% 29% -24.4%
20% -47.4% 21% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage616d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $45 +$13 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$16 +54%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$10 -65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $82 +$33 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 −$54 -89%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $43 +$47 +109%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $38 −$17 -45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kamala say "Thank you" 5+ times in her speech after the election Nov 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 06 $9 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $104 +$25 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $45 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 41h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 44h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 44h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $19 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $29 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.41 · official $48.41 (match) · 75 history records