Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fd0…d9eb world 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$18
14 days+$10
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
other 31% +$14
politics 30% +$1
finance 2% −$2
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.3% -7.4% 45% 9% -8.0%
≤30d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 40 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 5% -9.3%
all 43 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 5% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage99d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $86 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $96 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $344 +$15 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $92 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $125 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $93 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $77 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $49 −$10 -19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $273 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $88 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $94 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $272 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $94 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $230 −$2 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $2 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $253 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $93 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $138 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $74 −$8 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $82 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $90 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $6 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $90 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $142 +$15 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $134 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $546 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $599 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,121 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $643 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $636 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 13 $18 −$3 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 20m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $78 20m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $86 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $76 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $96 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $84 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $62 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $92 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $92 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $92 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $93 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $93 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $93 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $84 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records