Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fd2…5997 other 1063 markets active 0h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$214 (-1%) realized −$217 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate82%857W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$43
14 days−$36
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$157
politics 18% −$67
weather 16% +$8
world 8% −$22
crypto 5% +$66
tech 5% −$72
culture 3% +$42
economics 2% −$52
finance 1% +$8
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -5.5% -14.5% 88% 17% -14.5%
≤30d 96 -3.4% -12.6% 91% 16% -11.4%
≤90d 526 -0.5% -10.0% 92% 20% -9.5%
all 1050 -2.7% -11.9% 82% 17% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 17% -10.7%
10% -20.4% 1% -19.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses857 / 193
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1050 / 1063
History coverage183d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1050 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 91¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? No 87¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Eldor Shomurodov: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Oston Urunov: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Uzbekistan to win the second half? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Jorge Carrascal: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Andrés Gómez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Cucho Hernández be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Camilo Vargas be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Yerry Mina be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
José Sá: 3+ saves Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Gaël Kakuta: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Ali Azaizeh: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Xaver Schlager: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Alessandro Schöpf: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Valentín Barco: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Senegal to win the second half? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Dennis Eckert: 1+ assists Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Callum McCowatt: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Jesse Randall: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Egypt to win the second half? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Cabo Verde to win the second half? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Cucurella: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Rodri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Gabriel Gudmundsson: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Elias Saad: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Firas Chaouat: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Anis Ben Slimane: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Connor Metcalfe: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Cristian Volpato: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Jackson Irvine: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Scott McKenna: 1+ assists Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Haiti to win the second half? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 14m
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 95¢ $10 24m
Oston Urunov: 1+ goals BUY No 97¢ $10 22h
Will Yerry Mina be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 97¢ $10 22h
Eldor Shomurodov: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $10 22h
Will Camilo Vargas be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 22h
Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $10 23h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? BUY No 87¢ $10 23h
Jorge Carrascal: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $10 23h
Will Cucho Hernández be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 95¢ $10 23h
Will Andrés Gómez be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $10 24h
Uzbekistan to win the second half? BUY No 92¢ $10 24h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and BUY No 95¢ $10 24h
José Sá: 3+ saves BUY No 98¢ $10 44h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $10 44h
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $10 46h
Ali Azaizeh: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $10 46h
Valentín Barco: 1+ goals BUY No 96¢ $10 46h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $10 46h
Xaver Schlager: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $10 47h
Gaël Kakuta: 1+ goals BUY No 96¢ $10 47h
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $10 47h
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $10 47h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals BUY No 92¢ $10 47h
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $10 47h
Alessandro Schöpf: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $10 2d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Jesse Randall: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $10 2d
Dennis Eckert: 1+ assists BUY No 93¢ $10 2d
Senegal to win the second half? BUY No 87¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.75 · official $102.75 (match) · 2369 history records