Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fd5…8b7e
crypto · 175 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$96 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$144 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses75 / 95
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)170 / 175
History coverage51d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 5 History 170 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$112
14 days−$112
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +181%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland to win the second half? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 +$15 +712%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $4 +$4 +107%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -72%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 +$6 +180%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$146
other 8% +$2
sports 8% −$3
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 7h
Scotland to win the second half? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 7h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $1 7h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $1 7h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $2 7h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $6 7h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 38% -40.2%
≤30d 103 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 38% -33.9%
≤90d 170 -6.1% -15.0% 44% 39% -25.1%
all 170 -6.1% -15.0% 44% 39% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 39% -25.1%
10% -23.2% 37% -32.3%
15% -30.6% 29% -38.8%
20% -37.4% 24% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.95 · official $7.95 (match) · 579 history records