Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fd8…71be
crypto · 311 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,955 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,950 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$1,950
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses174 / 332
Open positions1
Markets (closed)506 / 311
History coverage10d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day334.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 506 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,915
7 days−$1,904
14 days−$1,950
30 days−$1,950
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 55¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 47¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+113%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 58¢ 57¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 58¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$9 -178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$25 -398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$7 -4136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $149 −$159 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$6 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$32 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$10 -365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$46 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$4 -420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$4 -667%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$9 -161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$5 -511%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$7 -168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -800%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 484 -18.5% -26.3% 35% 27% -26.8%
≤30d 506 -17.8% -25.7% 34% 26% -24.7%
≤90d 506 -17.8% -25.7% 34% 26% -24.7%
all 506 -17.8% -25.7% 34% 26% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover334.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 26% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 20% -31.9%
15% -39.3% 14% -38.5%
20% -45.2% 9% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.96 · official $5.41 · 3500 history records