Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fda…ed4d other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$23
politics 22% −$9
sports 17% −$15
crypto 12% −$4
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
finance 4% −$1
culture 3% −$5
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.4% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 66 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 144 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 122
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage110d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $345 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $315 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 21 $44 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi Jun 20 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $37 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? Jun 19 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 18 $62 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $122 −$1 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $64 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $53 −$2 -3%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $255 −$3 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $42 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $553 −$4 -1%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $40 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $55 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $59 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $342 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $274 −$2 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 03 $57 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $48 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $59 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $59 13h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 13h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $43 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $44 27h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 27h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 32h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi SELL No 97¢ $50 33h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY No 98¢ $51 40h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $41 41h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $37 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $9 2d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $42 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $61 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $62 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.67 · official $47.67 (match) · 571 history records