Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fdd…2f82 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,149 (-21%) realized −$3,358 · open −$791
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$701per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,944
7 days+$1,070
14 days+$1,061
30 days+$551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$996
sports 36% +$1,929
crypto 26% −$4,245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.3% -11.6% 63% 58% -2.9%
≤30d 23 +65.2% +49.5% 57% 52% -6.3%
≤90d 26 +46.1% +32.2% 50% 46% -21.9%
all 26 +46.1% +32.2% 50% 46% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.2% 46% -21.9%
10% +19.6% 35% -29.4%
15% +8.0% 19% -36.2%
20% -2.6% 12% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +89% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$239 vs −$433 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$3,358
Unrealized−$791
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage104d
Avg bet$701
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Yes $899 $239 −$661 (-73%)
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? Yes $161 $31 −$131 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4,948 +$957 +19%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,720 +$907 +53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,609 −$187 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,473 +$138 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $996 +$476 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $531 −$235 -44%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $86 −$79 -92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $289 −$203 -70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $397 +$128 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $354 +$42 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $255 +$99 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $65 +$15 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $242 −$49 -20%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $144 −$100 -70%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $164 +$35 +21%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$56 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $246 +$56 +23%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$190 +1843%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$198 -99%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? Apr 17 $538 −$501 -93%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Apr 14 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? Apr 14 $1,471 −$1,471 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $3,276 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $2,622 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $2,630 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $2,326 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $2,328 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,515 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $298 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,423 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,609 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,611 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,473 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $996 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $7 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $86 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $86 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $289 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $289 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $524 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $397 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $354 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $354 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $255 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $65 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $65 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.32 · official $269.32 (match) · 161 history records