Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2fe2…9645 other 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,956 (+2%) realized +$2,963 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate77%129W / 39L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$1,013per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$326est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$2,993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$825
7 days−$1,834
14 days−$1,834
30 days−$4,715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$2,894
sports 36% +$1,610
crypto 1% −$1,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 63% -16.9%
≤30d 46 -12.0% -20.4% 65% 61% -20.7%
≤90d 115 -3.2% -12.4% 74% 71% -11.1%
all 168 +0.4% -9.1% 77% 74% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 74% -7.6%
10% -17.8% 49% -16.5%
15% -25.8% 14% -24.5%
20% -33.0% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$897 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$2,993
Realized+$2,963
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses129 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$326
Open positions3
Markets (closed)168 / 175
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,013
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 83¢ 84¢ $1,000 $1,006 +$6 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Wil Jun 23 $1,298 +$1,073 +83%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,004 +$172 +17%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $505 +$276 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $804 +$138 +17%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $804 +$171 +21%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $904 −$900 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $605 +$206 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,004 +$172 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,005 +$200 +20%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $701 +$43 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $445 −$440 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $805 −$20 -2%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $254 +$289 +114%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $504 +$160 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,005 +$200 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,008 +$380 +38%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $807 −$800 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $804 −$800 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $355 −$350 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $507 −$500 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $403 +$160 +40%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $602 +$93 +15%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 03 $1,008 +$377 +37%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 02 $1,012 +$621 +61%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $602 +$87 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $703 +$102 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $754 +$139 +18%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Jun 01 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Spread: Slovakia (-1.5) Jun 01 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5 May 27 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5 May 26 $755 +$195 +26%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $760 +$556 +73%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-10? May 23 $604 +$185 +31%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 23 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 23 $1,609 +$366 +23%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5) May 21 $405 −$400 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24 BUY 56¢ $2,692 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $1,005 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,007 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 56¢ $1,287 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $1,004 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $1,011 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Wil BUY 54¢ $1,298 44h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,007 44h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $1,007 44h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $1,004 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $1,003 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- BUY 66¢ $1,010 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $804 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $804 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $904 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $605 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $1,005 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $1,004 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $445 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $785 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $701 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $807 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $805 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $804 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17 BUY 60¢ $1,012 6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $254 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,993.33 · official $5,650.63 · 318 history records