Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fe5…6276 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-2%) realized −$44 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% +$20
crypto 7% −$19
other 4% −$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.5% -52.5% 50% 0% -24.9%
≤30d 2 -47.5% -52.5% 50% 0% -24.9%
≤90d 23 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 35% -28.8%
all 23 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 35% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 35% -28.8%
10% -20.5% 30% -35.6%
15% -28.2% 30% -41.8%
20% -35.2% 22% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$920
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage65d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $900 $920 +$20 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 14 $2 +$1 +49%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$5 +481%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 14 $4 +$6 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 14 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$3 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $932 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $21 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 64d
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $22 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $16 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $9 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $920.38 · official $920.38 (match) · 52 history records