Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2F 0x2fe6…7820 other 19 markets active 4d ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6,825 (-36%) realized −$6,825 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,666
14 days−$5,027
30 days−$5,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$2,028
other 32% −$4,919
sports 12% +$107
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -39.7% -45.5% 25% 25% -48.3%
≤30d 9 -46.4% -51.5% 22% 22% -72.3%
≤90d 9 -46.4% -51.5% 22% 22% -72.3%
all 19 -25.9% -33.0% 53% 16% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 16% -41.8%
10% -39.4% 16% -47.4%
15% -45.2% 5% -52.5%
20% -50.6% 5% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$718) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$910 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,825
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage230d
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $313 −$305 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $395 −$386 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $423 −$414 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $729 −$718 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $321 +$830 +259%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $647 −$638 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $866 +$203 +23%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $243 −$237 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,384 −$3,361 -99%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $10,729 −$2,028 -19%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Feb 08 $10 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Feb 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Feb 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Feb 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Feb 08 $10 $0 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 08 $10 $0 +3%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $999 +$314 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $311 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $395 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $421 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $729 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,150 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $321 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $647 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $625 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $444 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $243 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $766 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,384 7d
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla SELL Yes 62¢ $8,701 136d
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla BUY Yes 77¢ $10,729 136d
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? BUY No 28¢ $100 219d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 224d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 98¢ $10 224d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $10 224d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 224d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $10 224d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $10 224d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $10 224d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $1,313 234d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 76¢ $999 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records