Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fe6…73e0 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate23%9W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
other 20% −$1
politics 17% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 6% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.6% -10.0% 42% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.6% -10.0% 42% 0% -9.5%
all 39 -1.4% -10.8% 23% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses9 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage296d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $56 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $34 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $9 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $36 −$2 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $33 +$2 +7%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $1 $0 +12%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 18 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $1 $0 -17%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 18 $1 $0 -24%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $31 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $4 $0 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $60 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $33 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $33 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $1 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $22 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $22 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $34 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $3 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $34 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $34 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.50 · official $10.50 (match) · 150 history records