Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

2F 0x2fe8…ffa4 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized +$164 · open −$193

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip

Net edge-71%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%1W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day8.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-68.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-65.2%	-68.5%	12%	12%	-18.7%
≤30d	8	-65.2%	-68.5%	12%	12%	-18.7%
≤90d	8	-65.2%	-68.5%	12%	12%	-18.7%
all	8	-65.2%	-68.5%	12%	12%	-18.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-68.5%	12%	-18.7%
10%	-71.5%	12%	-26.5%
15%	-74.3%	12%	-33.6%
20%	-76.8%	0%	-40.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -65% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.33 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$161

Realized+$164

Unrealized−$193

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses1 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage2d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day8.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	80¢	36¢	$354	$161	−$193 (-55%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$323	−$9	-3%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$47	+$21	+45%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$14	−$14	-100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$9	−$6	-63%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$4	−$4	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$313	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	67¢	$313	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$44	3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$254	3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$69	4h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$17	23h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	40¢	$28	24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$30	24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	1¢	$3	27h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	27h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$9	28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	3¢	$9	28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$4	47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.56 · official $173.75 · 24 history records