Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fe9…3cff crypto 428 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%229W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$23
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -5.6% -14.6% 58% 50% -14.2%
≤30d 380 -4.1% -13.2% 56% 51% -11.0%
≤90d 428 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 49% -13.6%
all 428 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 49% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 49% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 40% -21.9%
15% -31.6% 35% -29.4%
20% -38.3% 26% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses229 / 199
Open positions0
Markets (closed)428 / 428
History coverage35d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 428 Trades
no open positions (109 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $8 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 888 history records