Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2F 0x2feb…d621 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$2 (+3%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$2
world 9% $0
politics 9% +$1
tech 3% +$1
culture 2% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 18 +11.9% +1.2% 78% 28% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 28% -6.9%
10% -8.5% 28% -15.8%
15% -17.3% 28% -23.9%
20% -25.4% 28% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage611d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 09 $1 $0 +3%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by April 30? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 +1%
Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $1 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Mar 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Dec 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Dec 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Dec 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 157m and 167m? Dec 23 $1 +$1 +52%
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 23? Nov 26 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Bill Ackman say "Trump" 4+ times during the X Space event on Nove Nov 20 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November Nov 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Meta (META) finish week of November 10 above $630? Nov 15 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Oct 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $3 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $1 36d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 45d
Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 46d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 46d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 60d
Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 77d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 77d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 166d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $0 167d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $11 167d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $11 167d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $0 172d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $10 172d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY Yes $11 172d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $0 173d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $10 173d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY Yes $10 173d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $0 173d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $10 173d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY Yes $10 173d
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 157m and 167m? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 196d
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year? BUY No 37¢ $1 200d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 23? BUY No 43¢ $1 206d
Will Bill Ackman say "Trump" 4+ times during the X Space event on Nove BUY No 49¢ $1 210d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November BUY No 62¢ $1 214d
Will Meta (META) finish week of November 10 above $630? BUY No 64¢ $2 216d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? BUY No 34¢ $2 610d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.68 · official $16.68 (match) · 35 history records