Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2feb…ed9b other 33 markets active 3d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-25%) realized −$92 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$21
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$28
sports 32% −$67
crypto 4% +$2
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 60% -20.1%
≤30d 29 -19.1% -26.8% 59% 55% -32.5%
≤90d 29 -19.1% -26.8% 59% 55% -32.5%
all 29 -19.1% -26.8% 59% 55% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 55% -32.5%
10% -33.8% 38% -39.0%
15% -40.2% 28% -44.9%
20% -46.1% 14% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 +$3 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$4 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$3 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$7 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $5 12d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $13 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $22 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $15 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 13d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 70¢ $10 13d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.50 · official $24.50 (match) · 55 history records