Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fec…c23d crypto 1569 markets active 2d ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$431 (+5%) realized +$431 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%879W / 690L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$30
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 +2.4% -7.3% 57% 57% -7.4%
≤30d 260 +3.1% -6.7% 58% 58% -6.7%
≤90d 1569 -1.5% -10.8% 56% 56% -13.1%
all 1569 -1.5% -10.8% 56% 56% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 56% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 54% -21.4%
15% -27.2% 48% -29.0%
20% -34.3% 40% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses879 / 690
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1569 / 1569
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1569 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records