Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fec…4d4d sports 246 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate33%80W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$0
14 days−$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% +$23
world 23% −$11
other 14% −$15
crypto 13% −$15
politics 8% −$8
finance 7% −$4
tech 6% −$6
economics 1% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 10% -9.4%
≤30d 70 +23.9% +12.1% 47% 30% -9.5%
≤90d 244 +3.6% -6.3% 33% 19% -11.3%
all 244 +3.6% -6.3% 33% 19% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 19% -11.3%
10% -15.2% 15% -19.8%
15% -23.4% 11% -27.5%
20% -30.9% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses80 / 164
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)244 / 246
History coverage70d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 28 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 27 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 26 $9 $0 +3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $21 $0 +2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $11 $0 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $13 +$20 +158%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $12 +$9 +76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +152%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $84 +$24 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 16 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 16 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $12 +$13 +109%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 10 $46 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 +$6 +111%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$2 -31%
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw? Jun 08 $6 +$11 +172%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $13 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $19 +$7 +39%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +9%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $11 +$6 +54%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $20 +$2 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $15 −$3 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $10 $0 -3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 05 $6 −$1 -13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $15 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 03 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 02 $12 +$1 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $27 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 16¢ $3 25h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 47h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 56¢ $3 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 56¢ $3 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 86¢ $11 2d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $27 2d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $13 6d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $18 8d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $8 8d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $9 8d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 8d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 95¢ $0 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 95¢ $9 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $6 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.65 · official $10.53 (match) · 1024 history records