Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2fed…7b2f crypto 111 markets active 6d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%65W / 46L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 42 -7.2% -16.0% 57% 50% -11.7%
≤90d 111 -7.5% -16.4% 59% 45% -9.0%
all 111 -7.5% -16.4% 59% 45% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 45% -9.0%
10% -24.4% 33% -17.7%
15% -31.7% 29% -25.6%
20% -38.4% 20% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses65 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage30d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $41 −$11 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 29 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 29 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 29 $41 +$10 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $30 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $41 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $41 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records