Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2fee…b930 other 6 markets active 18h ago coverage 170d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6 (+22%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$11
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$9
other 43% −$3
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +70.4% +54.2% 100% 100% +48.0%
≤30d 5 +23.2% +11.5% 80% 60% +10.5%
≤90d 5 +23.2% +11.5% 80% 60% +10.5%
all 6 +20.4% +8.9% 83% 50% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 50% +10.0%
10% -1.5% 33% -0.5%
15% -11.0% 33% -10.1%
20% -19.7% 33% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage170d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 06 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $5 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 10d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 168d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records