Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:52:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2F 0x2fef…1792 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$229 (+10%) realized +$230 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate83%34W / 7L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$214
crypto 25% +$14
other 19% $0
politics 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 4 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤90d 10 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -6.6%
all 41 +4.9% -5.1% 83% 2% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 2% -0.8%
10% -14.2% 2% -10.3%
15% -22.5% 2% -19.0%
20% -30.1% 2% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×31.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×151.79 per $1 lost it wins $151.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$230
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses34 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage549d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? No 97¢ 95¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 16 $16 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 16 $17 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $18 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Mar 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 27 $17 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $17 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $16 $0 +1%
Penguins vs. Predators Nov 15 $176 +$214 +122%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 14 $13 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 26 $11 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 26 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 27 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Aug 28 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 28 $24 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 28 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 28 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Mar 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Mar 19 $367 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 17 $386 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $388 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 91¢ $35 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 98¢ $16 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $18 23d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 97¢ $16 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $17 55d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 99¢ $15 84d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $18 84d
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? BUY No 99¢ $15 113d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 98¢ $17 113d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $15 144d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 97¢ $17 144d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $16 173d
Penguins vs. Predators BUY Predators 45¢ $176 217d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 98¢ $13 235d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 97¢ $26 235d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 97¢ $27 264d
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? BUY No 96¢ $11 264d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 98¢ $16 295d
Will Solana reach $250 in August? BUY No 97¢ $21 295d
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? BUY No 92¢ $11 329d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $24 329d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 355d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $17 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 94¢ $17 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $13 422d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 97¢ $20 422d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $18 457d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.28 · official $29.28 (match) · 90 history records