Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2ff2…01b9 crypto 536 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,024 (-6%) realized −$6,849 · open −$175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%282W / 652L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day99.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% −$15,295
crypto 34% −$1,245
other 4% −$1,414
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 647 -81.3% -83.1% 10% 10% -85.4%
≤30d 934 -47.3% -52.3% 30% 23% -25.3%
≤90d 934 -47.3% -52.3% 30% 23% -25.3%
all 934 -47.3% -52.3% 30% 23% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.3% 23% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -56.9% 21% -32.4%
15% -61.1% 16% -38.9%
20% -64.9% 12% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -97% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$52 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$632
Realized−$6,849
Unrealized−$175
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses282 / 652
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions36
Markets (closed)934 / 536
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$218
Trades / day99.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 934 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? No 49¢ 99¢ $30 $61 +$31 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 88¢ 93¢ $53 $56 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $18 $50 +$32 (+177%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 43¢ 97¢ $22 $49 +$27 (+127%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? No 66¢ 100¢ $29 $43 +$14 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $19 $37 +$18 (+95%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? No 54¢ 100¢ $19 $35 +$16 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? No 39¢ 100¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+156%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Yes 45¢ 49¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 74¢ 100¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? No 45¢ 100¢ $9 $21 +$11 (+122%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Yes 39¢ 41¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? No 60¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Yes 52¢ 63¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+94%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 35¢ 24¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? No 51¢ 62¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 70¢ 70¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? No 75¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 455 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $10 32m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 45¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.05 · official $632.32 (match) · 3500 history records