Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2ff2…c175 sports 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,556 (-5%) realized −$1,596 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate35%34W / 63L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$329est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,622
7 days−$669
14 days+$1,309
30 days−$1,462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$447
other 21% −$1,763
world 0% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +6.8% -3.4% 22% 22% -19.3%
≤30d 97 +4.9% -5.1% 35% 24% -14.8%
≤90d 97 +4.9% -5.1% 35% 24% -14.8%
all 97 +4.9% -5.1% 35% 24% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 24% -14.8%
10% -14.2% 24% -22.9%
15% -22.5% 23% -30.4%
20% -30.1% 21% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$190 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$2,276
Realized−$1,596
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses34 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$329
Open positions5
Markets (closed)97 / 119
History coverage28d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 33¢ 32¢ $1,100 $1,083 −$17 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $543 $713 +$170 (+31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $390 −$110 (-22%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 3¢ 3¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $789 −$789 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $134 −$134 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $134 −$134 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $134 −$134 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $134 −$134 -100%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $40 +$182 +455%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $113 −$111 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) AND Spread: Jun 20 $34 +$246 +727%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$41 +80%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $165 +$494 +299%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $112 −$41 -37%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $329 +$337 +103%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $473 −$118 -25%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 +$107 +474%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $623 +$1,265 +203%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $57 +$172 +301%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $401 −$397 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $264 −$264 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $406 −$405 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$184 +180%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $701 −$51 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $338 −$333 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $234 −$232 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $4 +$4 +100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $412 +$188 +46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $298 +$257 +86%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $396 +$284 +72%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $26 $0 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $131 −$128 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $43 17m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 3¢ $34 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 4¢ $34 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 2¢ $34 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 3¢ $0 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 3¢ $5 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 3¢ $40 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 3¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $1,100 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 2¢ $1 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY 2¢ $5 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY 2¢ $5 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 1¢ $10 9h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22 BUY 1¢ $2 9h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22 BUY 1¢ $2 9h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22 BUY 1¢ $2 9h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22 BUY 1¢ $2 9h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22 BUY 1¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,275.70 · official $2,419.04 · 418 history records